Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kharg Island, Iran's largest oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf, would require a complete change of sovereign control—not merely operational disruption—to settle this market affirmatively by end-March 2026. The island has been Iranian territory since 1912 and hosts critical petroleum infrastructure; any resolution would demand establishment of control by another state, occupying military force, or internationally recognised authority, excluding temporary strikes or naval blockades.

Historical precedent suggests such territorial shifts occur through sustained military campaigns rather than rapid seizures. The 1980–88 Iran–Iraq War saw Iraq briefly capture Kharg in 1980 but lost it within months; full Iranian recovery took years. More recently, the Houthis' drone and missile attacks on shipping and regional infrastructure (documented through 2024) have caused operational damage without territorial conquest. The current 0% crowd probability reflects the substantial military resources required to dislodge Iranian control and the absence of any credible occupying force positioned to attempt this within fifteen months.

Traders should monitor escalation patterns in the Strait of Hormuz, any major shift in US or regional military posture toward Iran, and announcements regarding potential Israeli operations following the October 2024 escalations. The International Energy Agency and maritime security reports track Kharg's operational status; sustained loss of Iranian control would be immediately visible in global oil markets and shipping data. Without a declared military campaign or significant geopolitical rupture, the probability trajectory appears unlikely to shift materially before the March 2026 settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.