Eurovision 2026: Top 10

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Eurovision 2026 in Vienna will decide the top 10 by the final vote totals in May, and this contract is already trading at 0% YES. That is a clear outlier versus the event itself, because a country cannot be ruled out of the top 10 until the competition is under way and the running order, staging and live performances are known. The official Eurovision site currently lists the Vienna 2026 participants, while contemporaneous reporting indicates 35 countries had confirmed entry, with several broadcasters already withdrawing for this edition. In comparable Eurovision markets, pre-event pricing tends to stay highly dispersed until rehearsals and semi-final qualification make the scoring path clearer, so a zero line usually reflects a thin or stale market rather than strong negative information.

The main catalysts are the remaining pre-show announcements and the live contest schedule: song releases, staging rehearsals, semi-final allocations, qualification results, and the final running order all move top-10 expectations materially. The Independent reported the 2026 contest format after qualifiers were decided, which matters because advancing to the final is the first dependency before any top-10 finish can be settled. Traders should also watch for any withdrawals or disqualifications, since the market rules allow an immediate No if the candidate is eliminated. In practice, sportsbook-style odds, prediction-market pricing and analyst rankings often diverge most when a country has not yet performed publicly; once rehearsal clips and semi-final results arrive, those lines tend to converge quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Eurovision 2026: Top 10 across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.