Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Market context

Iran's internet infrastructure went offline on 28 February 2026 during escalating military conflict with the United States and Israel. The blackout affected mobile networks, fixed-line connectivity, and international gateways, leaving the country largely isolated from global communications. Authorities have not announced restoration timelines, and the conflict remains active as of early April 2026.

Historical precedent suggests extended outages in conflict zones rarely resolve quickly. Syria's internet disruptions during its civil war lasted months to years in affected regions; Myanmar's military junta maintained selective blackouts for extended periods following the 2021 coup. Iran itself imposed a near-total blackout for ten days in November 2019 during fuel-price protests, demonstrating both technical capability and political willingness to sustain prolonged disconnection. The current 0% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that restoration by 30 April 2026—roughly two months from blackout onset—requires either a ceasefire agreement or unilateral Iranian decision to restore access despite ongoing hostilities, neither of which appears imminent.

Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations, statements from Iranian telecommunications authorities, and reports from international observers regarding conflict de-escalation. The settlement window's proximity to the blackout date means restoration would need to occur within a compressed timeframe. Any announcement of peace talks or humanitarian corridors could shift probabilities materially, though current reporting from Reuters and AP suggests military operations continue without negotiation frameworks in place. Technical restoration itself—once politically authorised—typically requires days rather than weeks, so the constraint is political rather than infrastructural.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.