# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a measurable view count within its first 24 hours of publication. The prediction market currently prices a 25% probability for the outcome falling within an unspecified upper bracket, with settlement contingent on the video going live before 30 June 2026. Should no upload occur by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest range category.

MrBeast has consistently delivered eight-figure first-day view counts across his recent releases. His November 2024 video "I Gave Away $1,000,000" accumulated approximately 80 million views in 24 hours, whilst earlier high-profile uploads routinely exceeded 50 million. The creator's algorithmic dominance and subscriber base of over 200 million provide a structural floor for initial engagement. Historical precedent suggests the 25% implied probability reflects expectations for an exceptionally high threshold rather than baseline performance; most of his recent catalogue would satisfy mid-to-upper range brackets within the first day.

Traders monitoring this contract should track MrBeast's content calendar and any announcements regarding video release schedules or format changes. His uploads typically occur on Thursdays, though timing varies. YouTube's algorithm performance and broader platform engagement metrics during the settlement window could influence velocity, particularly if competing high-profile releases coincide. The creator's recent expansion into merchandise drops and cross-platform promotion occasionally affects view distribution patterns, though primary YouTube metrics remain the resolution source. Any extended hiatus from posting would trigger the lowest-bracket resolution, a tail risk currently priced into the market's probability structure.

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.