Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global crude oil transits daily, has experienced significant disruption since late 2024 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and subsequent regional tensions. The resolution criterion hinges on whether daily transit calls—measured as a seven-day moving average by IMF Portwatch—climb back to 60 or above by the end of June 2026. Current crowd-implied probability of 33% suggests traders view normalisation as unlikely within the settlement window, though the baseline before recent disruptions typically ranged between 70 and 90 daily transits.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions disrupted global shipping patterns for months, yet key chokepoints recovered within six to nine months as alternative routes and insurance mechanisms stabilised. Conversely, the 2011–2015 Yemen civil war's earlier phases saw Hormuz traffic remain suppressed for extended periods, with recovery dependent less on military de-escalation than on shipping companies' confidence in insurance availability and route safety. The current 33% probability aligns with analyst consensus that geopolitical resolution—rather than mere tactical pauses—would be required for sustained normalisation.

Traders should monitor announcements from the Houthi movement, US naval posture statements, and Iranian regional positioning through early 2026. The IMF Portwatch data publication schedule, typically updated weekly, will determine resolution timing; any sustained seven-day average above 60 triggers immediate settlement. Insurance premium movements and rerouting costs through the Cape of Good Hope remain leading indicators of whether shipping confidence is genuinely recovering or merely fluctuating within a depressed equilibrium.

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.