Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal after the February disruption, and the contract settles on whether IMF PortWatch records a 7-day average of at least 60 transits on any date before 15 May. IMF PortWatch has flagged reduced traffic since 28 February, while a live tracker showed the strait as restricted and commercial shipping still near zero in mid-May. That makes the market’s 0% YES implied probability consistent with the published data path: the threshold is close to normal traffic for this waterway, and current volumes appear far short of it.

The main historical comparator is the brief April reopening, when traffic improved only temporarily before slipping back, underlining how fragile any normalisation has been. Business Insider reported in late April that Iran had called the strait “completely open” before ship-tracking data showed vessels turning away and movements halting again. USNI noted on 1 May that transits were still less than 10% of pre-conflict levels and said tanker and oil markets would need until at least September to recover. Against that backdrop, analyst consensus is materially below the threshold within the settlement window, and there is no visible divergence from the market price.

Traders should watch for any formal security announcement from Iran, the US, or Gulf states, plus whether commercial carriers resume scheduled Gulf sailings rather than rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The key dependency is not a statement of openness but a sustained rise in reported ship arrivals large enough to lift the 7-day average above 60. The IMF PortWatch publication schedule and any lag in its ship-call coverage matter as much as the physical situation, because the market settles only on published data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.