"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The sixth instalment of the Scary Movie franchise is scheduled for theatrical release on 6 June 2026, with opening weekend box office performance (3–7 June) to be measured against established brackets via The Numbers' domestic figures. The current 0% implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either substantial uncertainty about the film's commercial viability or confidence that it will underperform all specified thresholds.

Horror-comedies and legacy sequels present divergent precedents for interpreting this market. The original Scary Movie (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically, whilst later instalments showed declining returns: Scary Movie 5 (2013) managed $15.0 million. More recent comparable releases—Scream (2022) at $30.1 million and Happy Death Day (2017) at $26.0 million—suggest mid-tier horror franchises can still generate respectable opening weekends, though franchise fatigue and the 13-year gap since the last Scary Movie entry create material headwinds. The 0% reading appears to discount the possibility of a strong nostalgia-driven opening entirely.

Traders should monitor pre-release tracking data and social media sentiment in the weeks preceding launch, alongside any studio marketing spend announcements. Paramount's positioning of the film within its summer slate and whether it receives premium screen allocations will influence floor estimates. International pre-sales figures, where available, may signal domestic appetite. The settlement window closes 8 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, allowing final box office reconciliation after the full weekend closes.

Methodology

This page reviews "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.