"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The Odyssey's second weekend domestic box office performance will be measured across the 24–26 July 2026 period using final figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates. The market currently reflects a 1% implied probability, suggesting traders expect a substantial drop-off from opening weekend or a weak absolute total. Settlement hinges on confirmed data from The Numbers' Box Office tab, with ties between brackets resolving to the higher range.

Second-weekend holds vary dramatically by genre and opening strength. Franchise tentpoles and event films typically retain 50–65% of opening weekend grosses, whilst character-driven dramas often fall 60–75%. A film opening to $40 million might expect $20–26 million in weekend two under normal conditions; one opening below $15 million faces steeper declines. The 1% probability suggests either an exceptionally weak opening or market consensus that The Odyssey lacks the appeal drivers—established IP, star power, critical reception—that sustain box office momentum into a second frame.

Traders should monitor early critical reception and audience scores from opening weekend, typically available by Sunday evening, as these significantly influence holdover performance. Summer 2026 scheduling density matters; if major competing releases arrive during the second weekend, The Odyssey faces additional headwinds. Box office tracking services including Deadline and Variety will publish opening weekend figures by Sunday 19 July, providing the baseline from which second-weekend decline rates can be projected. Any significant gap between studio estimates and final Numbers figures could shift expectations, though the 1% current probability leaves limited room for upside surprise.

Methodology

We track "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.