"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of Angel Studios’ historical epic *Young Washington* for the three days of July 3–5, 2026. Final figures confirm the film earned $20.85 million domestically from 2,700 theatres, beating projections by nearly 40% and setting a live-action record for the studio [1][2]. This performance placed it third behind *Minions & Monsters* and *Toy Story 5*, yet it nearly doubled the debut of *Supergirl* [1][2].

Historically, July 4 weekend releases often exceed modest forecasts when backed by strong social advocacy, as seen with *Sound of Freedom*’s $19.7 million debut in 2023 [1]. *Young Washington*’s $20.85 million opening aligns with that pattern, suggesting the 0% YES probability on the prediction market reflects a mispricing relative to the actual outcome, which clearly falls within the higher bracket of most box-office ranges [2][6]. The divergence between the market’s implied probability and the confirmed gross is stark, especially when compared to sportsbook lines that typically account for July holiday surges.

Traders should monitor Angel Studios’ announcement of the sequel *1776*, which was confirmed shortly after the opening weekend [5]. Chris Pratt’s endorsement to his 55 million followers also remains a key catalyst, having driven significant pre-release attention [2]. With final numbers now confirmed and not studio estimates, the settlement window ending 2026-07-06 will resolve the market to the higher bracket, as the $20.85 million figure sits just above the $20.847 million threshold [6]. No further dependencies exist once the 3-day total is finalised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.