# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether MrBeast uploads his next YouTube video by 30 July 2026 and, if so, how many views it accumulates in the first 24 hours. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market currently treats a strike as virtually impossible, suggesting traders expect either no upload or a video so delayed that it falls outside the settlement window.

Historically, MrBeast’s YouTube releases have consistently shattered first-day view records, with recent videos hitting 200–260 million views within 24 hours [3]. Even his long-delayed “Hi Me In 10 Years” video, scheduled for a decade, still drew massive attention upon release [9]. This pattern frames the 0% probability as an outlier: unless the upload is abandoned or pushed beyond the deadline, a high-view outcome is the norm, not the exception.

Traders should monitor MrBeast’s social media for upload confirmations and note that filming delays—such as the recent CloudStrike-related pushback—could affect timing [1][5]. His Beast Games Season 2 rollout on Prime Video through February 25 may also influence his YouTube schedule, as cross-platform content often shifts release priorities [2][8]. A clear announcement of an upcoming video, coupled with a firm upload date before 30 July, would be the primary catalyst to reassess the 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.