How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after a months-long blockade, with traffic recovering over the weekend of July 3–5 despite fresh missile attacks on commercial vessels on Monday night [3][5]. The Strait, which carries roughly 20–30% of global oil consumption daily, saw 108 verified crossings over those three days, including 43 on July 3, 34 on July 4 and 31 on July 5, according to data tracker Kpler [3].

Historical patterns from the 2026 crisis show that even after a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran resumed flows on July 6, daily transits remain volatile and uneven [8]. In June, the Strait recorded just 29 verified crossings over five days amid extreme outbound restrictions, with zero crude tankers moving outbound for 72 hours at one point [1][2]. The current 84% YES probability on the prediction market implies confidence that weekly totals will exceed the settlement threshold, yet analyst consensus remains cautious given the recent attacks and ongoing IRGC warnings [3][7].

Traders should monitor UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) incident reports, daily Kpler crossing tallies, and any new advisories from the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) regarding route availability [3][9]. The settlement depends entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo and tanker ships from July 6–12, 2026, with data finalised only once the next day’s point is available [market description]. Any escalation in IRGC missile activity or renewed mine-laying could abruptly suppress volumes, while sustained US–Iran diplomatic engagement would support higher weekly counts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.