Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships continue to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil flows, yet daily transit volumes have collapsed dramatically since the onset of the Iran war. IMF PortWatch data reveals that crossings, which previously averaged between 75 and 125 ships per day, have fallen by more than 95%, leaving the market with a 46% implied probability that any day will meet the listed threshold by July 2026[6]. This severe divergence from historical norms frames the current odds as a reflection of sustained geopolitical disruption rather than a temporary dip, aligning with analyst consensus that traffic will remain suppressed unless a major de-escalation occurs.

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements from the Iranian government regarding port access and any scheduled naval patrols that could further restrict movement, as these dependencies directly dictate transit feasibility. Recent reports confirm that the IMF PortWatch recorded 41 transit calls during the week of 9–15 March 2026, a figure that remains well below pre-war averages but suggests a fragile baseline of activity persists[7]. With the settlement window ending in July 2026, the key catalyst remains whether diplomatic efforts can restore the flow of container, tanker, and bulk vessels to pre-conflict levels, a shift that would likely push cross-platform odds significantly higher than current prediction-market lines.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.