Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by 2026?

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Market context

Former Cuban president Raúl Castro has been indicted in the United States over the 1996 shoot-down of civilian planes flown by Miami-based exiles, but the market turns on a narrower question: whether U.S. government personnel physically take him into custody before 30 June. That makes a 27% yes price depend less on the indictment itself than on whether Washington can reach an 95-year-old figure who is believed to be in Cuba and outside normal U.S. jurisdiction. In comparable custody or rendition-style contracts, the gap between legal action and physical seizure has usually been wide, because indictments, warrants and sanctions can move quickly while actual custody requires location, access and some form of co-operation or extraordinary enforcement.

The key catalysts are therefore operational, not rhetorical. Traders should watch for any formal U.S. statements on a warrant, extradition request or asset seizure, plus any Cuban response that indicates movement, medical travel, or a negotiated transfer. Reuters and US local coverage on 20 May reported the indictment and a Justice Department line that an arrest warrant had been issued, but there has been no public evidence that Castro is outside Cuban control. The main comparison point across markets is that 27% is materially above the base rate implied by the current facts: prediction markets often discount dramatic headlines less than sportsbooks do, yet the analyst consensus on this contract would still lean well below one-in-three unless there is a fast, visible diplomatic or security escalation.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.