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Elon Musk # tweets July 9 - July 11, 2026?

Live odds for "Elon Musk # tweets July 9 - July 11, 2026?" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

40-64 51% 65-89 28% <40 13% 90-114 8% Volume: $149K Liquidity: $122K Closes: 11 Jul 2026
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Elon Musk # tweets July 9 - July 11, 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 51% 49% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 51% 49% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
40-6451%
65-8928%
<4013%
90-1148%
115-1391%
140-1641%
165-1890%
190-2140%
215-2390%
240+0%

Market context

Market consensus: 51% chance of elon musk # tweets july 9 - july 11, 2026?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 9 12:00 PM ET to July 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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