Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October 2026, with the Knesset dissolved in May 2026, potentially triggering a snap election between September and October. The crowd-implied probability of 36% YES for Benjamin Netanyahu becoming the next Prime Minister diverges sharply from analyst consensus, which favours Gadi Eisenkot at 40.8%, while prediction markets show Naftali Bennett at 39.5%—a significant swing from his 12.5% in other platforms. This misalignment suggests traders are betting on coalition dynamics rather than pure polling, as Netanyahu’s Likud remains the top vote-getter but faces fractured support from religious and far-right allies who may withhold backing if internal thresholds are not met.

Historically, Israel’s volatile coalition system has seen leaders like Yitzhak Shamir and Ehud Barak rise or fall based on narrow parliamentary margins, not popular vote. In 2026, the new joint list “Beyachad,” uniting Bennett and Yair Lapid, could reshape the centre-right bloc, while Arab parties and Shas may hold decisive sway. Traders should monitor Bennett’s April 2026 announcement of his party merger, Netanyahu’s June 2026 reconfirmation of his candidacy, and the Jerusalem Post’s reported snap election dates between 8 September and 20 October. Any delay in Knesset dissolution or early coalition talks could shift odds toward Eisenkot, who commands broader cross-party support, or Bennett, whose Beyachad alliance may consolidate the anti-Netanyahu vote.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.