Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's agreement to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile by 31 March 2026 remains absent from current diplomatic channels, with the 0% crowd-implied probability reflecting the substantial distance between Tehran's stated nuclear posture and the conditions required for such a pledge. The market settles affirmatively if Iran makes a public commitment—whether unilateral or negotiated with the United States, Israel, or another party—to transfer, ship, or place any quantity of its accumulated enriched uranium beyond its control.

Historical precedent offers limited encouragement for near-term movement. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action saw Iran commit to shipping out 97% of its low-enriched uranium stockpile, yet that agreement required years of negotiation and sanctions relief as incentive. Following the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, Iran resumed enrichment and has since accumulated roughly 130 tonnes of uranium in various concentrations, including material enriched to 60% purity—far closer to weapons-grade than permitted under the JCPOA. No comparable agreement has materialised in the intervening years despite intermittent diplomatic overtures.

Traders monitoring this contract should track statements from Iranian officials following any U.S. administration transition, particularly regarding sanctions policy or nuclear negotiations. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iran's stockpile levels provide baseline data, though announcements from Israeli or American officials regarding military pressure could shift diplomatic calculus. Current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the absence of active multilateral nuclear talks suggest the probability of a formal Iranian surrender pledge within fifteen months remains structurally constrained, with prediction markets and analyst consensus aligned at negligible odds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.