KY-04 Republican Primary: Margin of Victory

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Kentucky 4th District Republican primary was scheduled for 19 May 2026, and this contract settles on the vote-share gap between the top two candidates, not simply the winner. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, the market is effectively pricing the exact settlement condition as a non-event, which is starkly different from the broader nomination markets: Polymarket was still pointing to Ed Gallrein as a near-certain winner, while Kalshi’s winner contract also resolved around whether he secured the nomination at all. That split matters because a landslide, a narrow upset, or even a low-turnout plurality can all produce very different margin bands even when the same candidate wins.

Historically, primary margin markets tend to be most sensitive when there is little public polling, limited campaign finance transparency, or an expected late turnout push. In comparable county- or district-level nomination contests, the biggest pricing errors have come from assumptions about how consolidated the field is and whether a frontrunner can run up the score in rural precincts. If Gallrein’s support was already heavily discounted elsewhere, then the margin contract would usually trade lower than a pure winner market, because a win does not automatically imply a double-digit spread.

For traders, the key catalysts are the certified result, turnout reports, and any late endorsements or campaign statements that suggest whether the contest was competitive or one-sided. The main dependency is the official vote tabulation, since the settlement formula uses the first- and second-place percentages of valid votes cast. Recent coverage on the race has focused more on who wins the nomination than on margin specifics, which helps explain why the margin contract can diverge from winner-odds pricing even when the headline race looks settled.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.