Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still being priced as a low-probability return to normal before the end of August, with this contract at 4% YES and broader prediction-market sentiment only marginally firmer. That leaves it well below the kind of levels implied earlier in the year, when Kalshi traders were still assigning roughly 56–61% to a recovery by August and Polymarket was around 59% to 67% for similar dates[1][4].

The key historical framing is that traders have repeatedly pulled back on the odds as disruption persisted, which makes the current price consistent with a market that has moved from “temporary shock” to “extended impairment”. By early June, Kalshi odds for a normal flow by August had already fallen to 21%, and by July a separate Kalshi view put the chance of normal traffic by December at just 43%, with Polymarket a little more optimistic at 59% by year-end[6][2]. For comparison, Polymarket’s earlier April contract on the same IMF Portwatch definition had already gone to 0% YES, underscoring how quickly this venue can reprice when transit data stay weak[17].

What traders are watching now is the IMF Portwatch seven-day moving average itself, because the contract resolves mechanically once the published “Arrivals of Ships” average reaches 60 or more. That means any sustained rebound in tanker, container, bulk, ro-ro, or general cargo transits matters more than headlines alone, although shipping-security developments and any easing in regional tensions can still move expectations ahead of the data release[17][2]. On the cross-platform comparison, the current 4% figure sits meaningfully below both the earlier Kalshi/Polymarket levels and the quoted market consensus, suggesting this contract is already discounting a very limited chance of a near-term normalisation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.