Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial traffic following Iran’s Revolutionary Guards declaring passages “not allowed” in late February 2026 amid the 2026 Iran war and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [1]. Although the blockade is not legally binding, safety concerns have forced vessels to turn back or stay in port, with daily transits for non-Iranian ships dropping to single digits from a pre-crisis average exceeding 153 [2]. A US–Iran agreement finalized on 17 June guarantees immediate restoration of commercial navigation, yet shipping levels remain far below prewar norms, with uncertainty persisting over when traffic will fully recover [3].

Historical precedents for such selective blockades suggest recovery is rarely immediate; even after the April ceasefire, only 45 ships passed through despite hundreds stranded in the Gulf [6]. The 2% implied probability on the prediction market reflects this sluggish rebound, diverging sharply from sportsbook lines that often assign higher odds to geopolitical de-escalation outcomes, while analyst consensus remains cautious given the IRGC’s case-by-case approval process for neutral nations like India and China [2]. Traders should monitor the IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average for arrivals, watching specifically for the June 17 agreement’s 30-day restoration clause to expire and any new diplomatic announcements from Washington or Tehran [3]. Recent data shows 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on 25 June, the highest volume since April, but this remains insufficient to meet the 60-vessel threshold required for a “Yes” resolution [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.