Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The question is whether the Trump administration will keep releasing new, previously unpublished files on UFOs or UAPs before year-end. The market is already priced at 100% YES, which leaves no room for a further upside move but still reflects the live risk of a technical “No” if releases stall, are reclassified, or miss the settlement wording. Recent official material points the other way: the Department of War’s UAP portal says releases will continue on a rolling basis, and the first tranche went out on 8 May, including video, photos and source documents. That makes the current contract look less like a forecast of a single event and more like a question of continuity through 31 December.

The best comparison is earlier government transparency drives that began with a public launch and then depended on follow-on tranches, agency review and redactions. Here, the relevant catalyst is not whether Trump ordered disclosure — he already did — but whether additional files are actually posted and qualify as not previously public. Watch the Department of War’s UAP page, any White House or ODNI announcements, and any scheduled tranche releases “every few weeks” as described on the portal. NBC News reported the initial release on 8 May, while the official release page suggests the programme is ongoing. In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style lines are unlikely to be meaningfully tighter than the market, but the consensus view appears aligned with a near-certain Yes rather than a contested call.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump declassifies new UFO files by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.