Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's removal or resignation from the presidency before the end of 2026 is priced at 6% implied probability across prediction markets, reflecting a baseline expectation that he completes his current term. The market settles on permanent departure only—temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment or brief medical absences do not qualify. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate settlement to "Yes" regardless of the effective date, meaning markets would react to the declaration itself rather than waiting for formal transition.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US president has been removed via the 25th Amendment's Section 4 (Cabinet-led removal), and only one president has resigned (Richard Nixon in 1974). Impeachment has occurred twice without removal, and the threshold for conviction remains extraordinarily high at two-thirds of the Senate. The 6% probability sits materially lower than typical sportsbook lines on comparable political contingencies, suggesting prediction-market participants view removal as substantially less likely than resignation, which would require Trump's voluntary decision.

Traders monitoring this contract should track health-related developments, congressional dynamics following any election shifts, and legal proceedings that might create political pressure. The market's settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, capturing roughly the first two years of Trump's term. Recent reporting on presidential fitness and succession planning remains sparse, leaving the market relatively insensitive to day-to-day political noise. Any significant health event, criminal conviction, or major constitutional crisis would likely shift implied probability meaningfully, though the current pricing reflects scepticism that such catalysts will materialise within the timeframe.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.