Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran’s ruling system would need to lose effective control of the state by 31 May for this market to resolve yes, which means far more than protests, strikes, or elite disagreement. The current 1% crowd price is consistent with the historical pattern in Iran: even intense unrest has usually been met by coercion, security-force loyalty, and regime adaptation rather than rapid collapse. Reporting from ISW and Brookings points to serious economic pressure, public discontent, and post-war vulnerability, but also notes that the regime has shown limited internal cracking and retains the core instruments of repression and governance. In comparable cases, markets often overprice immediate regime change when external shocks are acute but the succession of power remains tightly controlled.

For traders, the key catalysts are signs that the regime’s coercive apparatus is fracturing, not just that unrest persists: defections in the IRGC or Basij, public splits among senior clerics or security chiefs, sustained nationwide protest activity despite repression, or a sudden loss of communications and administrative control. Critical Threats reported on 6 May that Iranian officials were preparing for economic instability and domestic unrest, while stressing that this does not imply surrender; that is the main distinction to watch. Absent a decisive military or political rupture, a formal announcement replacing the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC-led order before month-end looks highly unlikely. Recent commentary across analysts and prediction-market coverage also suggests little divergence here: the contract is priced as a low-probability tail event, and the broader consensus remains that the regime is under strain but not close to collapse.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.