Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Senate would need to complete final passage of a reconciliation bill before 31 May for this market to settle Yes, but the contract is still pricing that as effectively impossible at 0%. That is broadly in line with the procedural record: the Senate adopted the FY2026 budget blueprint on 23 April by 50-48, then committees were told to produce text by 15 May, with leadership initially targeting a rapid floor finish. In practice, reconciliation bills can move quickly once both chambers agree on a budget resolution, but they still require near-total party discipline, committee sign-off, a manager’s package, and time-consuming floor handling under the Byrd Rule.

What matters now is whether the remaining steps can be compressed into days rather than weeks. Ballotpedia reported on 7 May that Senate committees had released a roughly $72 billion draft, while CBO’s later scores put the two committee instructions at $32.5 billion and $39.2 billion in deficit effects, underscoring that the legislation is still being assembled rather than queued for final passage. The main catalysts are official floor scheduling, any joint text from the House and Senate committees, and whether leadership can secure all Republican votes. There is no visible sportsbook-style pricing to compare with this contract, but analyst coverage has consistently treated a 31 May Senate vote as a very tight deadline, making the current prediction-market price unsurprising.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.