Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Elon Musk’s posting total on X over the August 4–11 window will be determined by main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts, while replies are excluded unless they appear as main-feed replies that the tracker captures. That matters because Musk has recently produced very high daily volumes: a separate July 24–31 contract had a 240-259 bucket leading at 23%, with 220-239 at 30% and 200-219 at 21% on a companion market page, while Polymarket’s live July 28–August 4 market had 180-199 as the front-runner at 15% and 200-219 next at 14%.[16][1] Against that backdrop, the current 0% YES implication looks like a pricing artefact rather than a literal view that he will not post at all; the more relevant comparison is how traders and outside trackers have repeatedly treated Musk’s output as a high-frequency stream that can shift sharply from week to week.[2][3]

For catalysts, traders should watch Tesla and SpaceX product or launch timing, since Musk’s posting cadence often rises around announcement-heavy periods; a recent report said Musk has promised Tesla robotaxis in August, which could generate a burst of promotional or reactive posts if schedules tighten or slip.[4] Analysts comparing this contract with sportsbook-style odds will usually anchor on his recent pace and any known event calendar, but the main dependency is still simple: whether Musk stays active on X in the specific capture window from 4 August at 12:00 PM ET to 11 August at 12:00 PM ET. The tracker also counts deleted posts if they remain live long enough to be captured, so short-lived bursts can matter more here than in markets that only consider final visible history.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.