NY-13 Democratic Primary Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic nomination for New York’s 13th congressional district is being fought by incumbent Adriano Espaillat and challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, with the primary set for 23 June 2026. The market is pricing Espaillat at **63%**, which is consistent with a clear but not overwhelming favourite rather than a lock; Polymarket’s listed price leaves Avila Chevalier at **38%**, a materially competitive line for an incumbent contest.[1][2][6]

Historically, this sort of district-level primary market is best read through incumbent advantage versus anti-incumbent challenge rather than national partisan swings. Cook Political Report is already treating the race as a serious defence for Espaillat, highlighting Avila Chevalier’s challenge as meaningful, while ABC7NY has described the contest as one of the more contentious local primaries in the area.[4][6] That context suggests the current probability is in the range of a pressured incumbent, not a status-quo coronation, and the market’s pricing is broadly in line with that framing rather than implying a strong analyst consensus either way.[1][4][6]

The main catalysts are straight-forward but important: final campaign messages before polling day, any late endorsements, turnout operations, and whether the field remains unchanged through the primary itself. The NYC Board of Elections has already published the primary contest list, and the market’s own rules state that only the nominee outcome by the settlement deadline matters; any later replacement would not change resolution.[1][5] Debate exposure and local coverage may still move expectations at the margin, but with the vote imminent, cross-platform odds are likely to stay sensitive to any last-minute shift in campaign visibility or turnout assumptions.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.