How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The question centres on whether Earth will experience one or more earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater during a seven-day window in early June 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program maintains the authoritative global catalogue used for settlement, recording all seismic events above the specified threshold regardless of location or time of day.

Historically, a seven-day period without any magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occurs roughly 35–40% of the time globally, though this varies by season and broader seismic cycles. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders view June 1–7, 2026 as statistically unlikely to remain quiet, though the reasoning behind this consensus diverges from long-term frequency data. Comparable markets tracking similar seven-day windows have typically settled YES at rates between 55–65%, indicating the crowd's baseline expectation favours at least one significant event. The zero probability here may reflect either incomplete market participation or a specific catalyst traders anticipate during this period.

Traders should monitor seismic bulletins from the USGS and international monitoring agencies in the weeks preceding the window, as clustering patterns sometimes emerge before major events. Volcanic activity reports and tectonic stress assessments published by geological surveys can shift expectations. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on USGS data publication timelines; earthquakes occurring within the window but reported after June 8, 2026 at 03:59 UTC could create ambiguity, though the market specifies the USGS search tool as the binding source. Real-time earthquake feeds and historical frequency distributions remain the primary tools for reassessing the current odds.

Methodology

We track How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.