Egypt vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group G fixture between Egypt and IR Iran, set for 11:00 PM ET on 26 June 2026 in Seattle, determines whether Egypt secures the group title or Iran reaches the knockout stage. This specific market targets the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation, excluding extra time and shoot-outs, with a current crowd-implied probability of 16% for the "YES" outcome.

Historical head-to-head data shows Egypt winning two of their last five encounters against Iran, averaging 1.2 goals per match while conceding just 0.8, suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest typical of World Cup group deciders where defensive discipline often overrides attacking flair [2]. Comparable World Cup matches between nations with similar FIFA rankings frequently end in 1-0 or 1-1 results, framing the 16% probability as a plausible but not dominant expectation for a specific exact score in such a high-stakes environment.

Traders should monitor pre-match squad announcements and any late tactical shifts, as Iran’s recent training sessions indicate a focus on defensive solidity before facing Egypt’s clinical attacking edge [4][5]. The match odds from major sportsbooks show Egypt as a slight favourite with +140 money-line odds versus Iran’s +280, while the total goals market leans towards under 2.5 at -160, highlighting a divergence where prediction markets may be pricing in a specific exact score more aggressively than the broader consensus on goal totals [1]. Any delay in kick-off or weather-related adjustments in Seattle could further alter the implied probability before the settlement window closes on 27 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.