Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

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Market context

On 26 June 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, Senegal and Iraq will meet in Group I Match 62 of the FIFA World Cup 2026™ at BMO Field in Toronto, with the market resolving strictly on the 90-minute regulation score. The crowd-implied probability of 4% for an exact score outcome reflects a high-risk, low-yield contract where any deviation from the listed scores defaults to “Any Other Score”. This mirrors historical World Cup fixtures between teams with contrasting recent form: Senegal, qualified for four World Cups including a quarter-final run in 2002, has lost both prior Group I matches, while Iraq, also with two losses, trails by six goals in goal difference [1][3][8]. Such low-probability exact-score markets typically settle on “Any Other Score” when both sides struggle to convert possession, as seen in Senegal’s 0-0-2 record and Iraq’s 0-0-2 standing with a -6 goal differential [1].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and training updates released by FIFA, as both teams have shown defensive fragility in early Group I play. Senegal’s training session ahead of Iraq was captured on 25 June, and Iraq’s pre-match preparation followed shortly, with coach Graham Arnold addressing media on the matchup [5][7][9]. A key catalyst is the confirmation of starting forwards; Senegal’s 1.6 points per match average and Iraq’s 2.0 opponent points per game suggest limited goal output, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals line at -182 [2][4]. The divergence between sportsbook odds (Senegal at -442, Iraq at +1100) and the 4% prediction-market probability indicates analysts expect a tight, low-scoring affair, making exact-score contracts exceptionally volatile [1][2]. With settlement ending at 19:00 UTC on 26 June, any postponement will keep the market open, but cancellation without a make-up game voids it [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.