SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test, scheduled for a 90-minute window opening at 22:45 UTC on 16 July, was cleanly aborted at T‑0 when several Raptor 3 engines failed to start, triggering an automatic launch abort before liftoff [1][2]. The company has not yet disclosed the specific cause, with Elon Musk stating a new attempt will happen “hopefully” in a few days [4].

Historically, Starship’s early test flights have featured multiple last-second aborts and delays before achieving success: Flight 1 suffered a pad explosion after ignition, Flight 2 aborted mid‑count due to a valve issue, and Flight 3 launched but lost a booster during ascent [9]. Given that Flight 13 is the first post‑IPO test using Block 3 hardware on both Booster 20 and Ship 40, a 0% crowd-implied probability on a successful outcome diverges sharply from the analyst consensus that a retry within days is likely, and from sportsbook-style lines on similar aerospace contracts that typically price in a 60–75% chance of eventual success after an initial abort [2][4].

Traders should watch for SpaceX’s next launch window announcement, any FAA or range-status updates, and data from the post-abort engine diagnostics, as the Federal Aviation Administration closed its investigation on 13 July, clearing the way for further launches [2]. The primary objective includes deploying 20 production Starlink V3 satellites and attempting a controlled ocean splashdown of Ship 40 in the Indian Ocean, with Booster 20 planned to splash in the Gulf of Mexico [2][3]. A successful retry would set the stage for Flight 14’s first booster catch, per Musk’s roadmap [11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.