Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
24% | 76% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
24% | 76% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 24% |
| Rory McIlroy | 7% |
| Xander Schauffele | 6% |
| Sam Burns | 5% |
| Keith Mitchell | 5% |
| Cameron Young | 5% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4% |
| Chris Gotterup | 4% |
| Viktor Hovland | 4% |
| Si Woo Kim | 4% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 3% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 3% |
| Jake Knapp | 3% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3% |
| Maverick McNealy | 3% |
| Collin Morikawa | 3% |
| Justin Rose | 3% |
| Michael Brennan | 2% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 2% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 2% |
| Rickie Fowler | 2% |
| Ryan Fox | 2% |
| Ryan Gerard | 2% |
| Russell Henley | 2% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 2% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 2% |
| Tom Kim | 2% |
| Min Woo Lee | 2% |
| Alexander Noren | 2% |
| JT Poston | 2% |
| Aaron Rai | 2% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 2% |
| Adam Scott | 2% |
| J.J. Spaun | 2% |
| Sahith Theegala | 2% |
| Justin Thomas | 2% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 2% |
| Gary Woodland | 2% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1% |
| Bud Cauley | 1% |
| Eric Cole | 1% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 1% |
| Ben Griffin | 1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1% |
| Alex Smalley | 1% |
| Sepp Straka | 1% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 24% probability to pga tour: bmw championship winner. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 BMW Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the BMW Championship tournament based on th…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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