Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to swedish open, qualification: gonzalo bueno vs igor ribeiro marcondes. This market refers to the tennis match between Gonzalo Bueno and Igor Ribeiro Marcondes in the Swedish Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We track Swedish Open, Qualification: Gonzalo Bueno vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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