Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Ignacio Buse, the Peruvian qualifier ranked outside the top 200, faces world number six Andrey Rublev in the opening round of Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The 34 per cent crowd-implied probability assigned to Buse's advancement reflects a substantial underdog position, though the settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing seven days for completion should delays occur.

Rublev's recent form and seeding position establish the baseline expectation. The Russian has maintained top-ten ranking stability through 2025 and early 2026, with consistent clay-court performances at Masters events. Historical precedent shows qualifiers advancing past seeded opponents at Roland Garros in roughly 8–12 per cent of first-round matchups, depending on ranking differential. Buse's path through qualifying would demonstrate baseline competitiveness, yet the 150+ ranking gap typically translates to sportsbook lines favouring Rublev at 85–90 per cent. The prediction market's 34 per cent for Buse sits meaningfully above typical qualifier conversion rates, suggesting either perceived value in Buse's qualifying run or market inefficiency relative to professional betting lines.

Traders should monitor official draw confirmation and any late withdrawals or injury announcements from either player in the week preceding the match. Court assignment and weather conditions—particularly wind patterns affecting clay play—can influence upset probability. Rublev's injury history warrants tracking; any reported physical concerns would shift the baseline substantially. The match's 5:00 AM ET scheduling may also affect betting liquidity and line movement across European and Asian markets during their respective trading hours.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.