Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 76% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis | 73% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 1 Winner | 68% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 2 Winner | 64% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Match O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Match O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Match O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 38% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, cincinnati open, qualification: martin damm vs stefanos sakellaridis stands at 76% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Martin Damm and Stefanos Sakellaridis in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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