Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 21.5 | 79% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 22.5 | 76% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo | 62% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner | 58% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner | 56% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 79% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo. This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Alejandro Tabilo in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for August 1, 2026 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rafae…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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