Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 72% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 21.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 Winner | 45% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 44% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 Winner | 44% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Match O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 38% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| Croatia Open: Alex Molcan vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 26% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 72% probability to croatia open: alex molcan vs alejandro davidovich fokina. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 16, 2026 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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