Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Christopher O'Connell Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, cincinnati open, qualification: alexander shevchenko vs christopher o'connell stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Shevchenko and Christopher O'Connell in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 10:…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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