Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Lyon Open, Qualification: Clement Tabur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Game Spread +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lyon open, qualification: clement tabur vs nicolai budkov kjaer stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Clement Tabur and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Lyon Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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