Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 74% |
| Spread -1.5 | 73% |
| O/U 37.5 | 73% |
| O/U 33.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 70% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 27.5 | 65% |
| O/U 41.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 62% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| TCU 1H O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| O/U 31.5 | 54% |
| O/U 35.5 | 54% |
| O/U 29.5 | 53% |
| O/U 45.5 | 53% |
| North Carolina O/U 11.5 | 53% |
| North Carolina O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Spread -16.5 | 52% |
| Spread -21.5 | 52% |
| O/U 39.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| TCU O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| TCU 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| TCU O/U 28.5 | 49% |
| North Carolina O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Spread: TCU (-8.5) | 48% |
| O/U 47.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 61.5 | 46% |
| O/U 67.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| O/U 65.5 | 45% |
| North Carolina O/U 25.5 | 45% |
| O/U 59.5 | 44% |
| North Carolina O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| Spread -34.5 | 42% |
| North Carolina O/U 20.5 | 42% |
| O/U 49.5 | 41% |
| O/U 63.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 40% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -31.5 | 39% |
| O/U 51.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 30% |
| Spread -14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 57.5 | 29% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| North Carolina vs. TCU | 27% |
| 2H Moneyline | 27% |
| Spread -20.5 | 25% |
| North Carolina O/U 23.5 | 24% |
| Spread -17.5 | 23% |
| Spread -24.5 | 14% |
| Spread -27.5 | 11% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 74% YES probability for North Carolina vs. TCU. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 12:00PM ET: If North Carolina wins, the market will resolve to "North Carolina". If TCU wins, the market will resolve to "TCU". If the…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $130K.
Methodology
We track North Carolina vs. TCU across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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