Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| Spread -0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| Northwestern O/U 20.5 | 71% |
| O/U 41.5 | 70% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| Spread -0.5 | 63% |
| O/U 43.5 | 63% |
| Northwestern O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 45.5 | 61% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -2.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northwestern vs. Michigan State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Northwestern O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Spread -5.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 46% |
| Michigan State O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 51.5 | 44% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 43% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -6.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| O/U 53.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 37% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 57.5 | 32% |
| O/U 61.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 31% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 12.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 30% |
| Spread -10.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 28% |
| O/U 55.5 | 28% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| O/U 69.5 | 26% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| O/U 73.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| O/U 75.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 22% |
| Spread -5.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| O/U 59.5 | 21% |
| Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -16.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 13% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 11% |
| O/U 65.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 2% |
Market context
Northwestern vs. Michigan State — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between Northwestern and Michigan State, scheduled for October 17 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northwestern" if Northwestern win the game. This mar…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $306K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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