Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 91% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 80% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 80% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma | 76% |
| Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| Texas O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 34.5 | 65% |
| O/U 36.5 | 65% |
| Spread -3.5 | 64% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| Oklahoma O/U 13.5 | 61% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 60% |
| Spread -6.5 | 59% |
| Spread -5.5 | 58% |
| O/U 38.5 | 58% |
| Texas O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| O/U 40.5 | 52% |
| Spread -26.5 | 51% |
| Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 51% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Spread -30.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Oklahoma Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Oklahoma O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Oklahoma O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Oklahoma Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 49% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Oklahoma Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 46% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| Spread -12.5 | 41% |
| O/U 46.5 | 41% |
| Spread -13.5 | 39% |
| Spread -11.5 | 39% |
| Spread -0.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| O/U 62.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Oklahoma O/U 19.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 35% |
| Spread -15.5 | 34% |
| O/U 50.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -16.5 | 29% |
| O/U 52.5 | 29% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| O/U 56.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 25% |
| Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 23% |
| Spread -20.5 | 22% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Spread -3.5 | 16% |
| Spread -23.5 | 15% |
| Spread -4.5 | 15% |
| Spread -24.5 | 14% |
| Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Spread -27.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Texas vs. Oklahoma. In the upcoming college football game between Texas and Oklahoma, scheduled for October 10 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game. This market will resolve to "Oklahom…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $760K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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