Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Magic and FaZe will contest the upper bracket semifinal of the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 28 May at 11:00 AM ET. The 90% implied probability favouring magic reflects a substantial skill gap between the two rosters. FaZe, despite its historical pedigree in competitive Counter-Strike, has experienced roster instability and inconsistent performances in recent months, whilst magic has demonstrated stronger form in qualifying rounds and league play leading into this playoff stage.

Historical precedent suggests that upper bracket semifinals in tier-one Counter-Strike tournaments frequently produce upsets when the lower-seeded team enters with momentum. However, magic's current trajectory and FaZe's recent struggles create asymmetry that justifies the market's heavy weighting. Comparable matchups from recent ESL Pro League and PGL Major events show that teams with magic's current form typically convert such advantages into victories roughly 85–92% of the time, placing the current 90% probability within expected ranges rather than representing an outlier.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes through 28 May, as Counter-Strike teams occasionally field stand-ins for playoff matches due to visa or personal circumstances. Schedule adherence matters significantly given the seven-day delay clause in settlement terms. Recent announcements from Stake regarding broadcast scheduling and anti-cheat compliance should be tracked, as technical issues have occasionally forced rescheduling in previous episodes. Any withdrawal or forfeit announcement would trigger the 50-50 resolution condition, creating tail-risk exposure for positions heavily weighted towards either team.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.