Türkiye vs. North Macedonia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye will face North Macedonia in a FIFA International Friendly on Monday, 1 June 2026. The match forms part of the pre-tournament preparation window ahead of the 2026 World Cup in North America, scheduled to commence later that month. The fixture is set for 17:30 UTC, with settlement occurring immediately after final whistle.

The prediction market's 100% implied probability reflects the substantial gap in competitive standing between the two nations. Türkiye currently ranks approximately 40th in the FIFA World Rankings, whilst North Macedonia sits outside the top 100. Historical head-to-head records show Türkiye has won all competitive and friendly encounters against North Macedonia since their first meeting in 2010, with a combined goal differential exceeding 10 goals across six matches. Comparable friendly fixtures involving established sides against lower-ranked opponents typically settle at 95–99% implied probability for the stronger team, suggesting the market pricing here sits at the upper boundary of that range.

Key variables for traders centre on squad availability and injury status in the final fortnight before settlement. Türkiye's preparation schedule and any late withdrawals from their squad due to club commitments or injury will influence team composition. North Macedonia's recent form and any tactical adjustments under their coaching staff merit monitoring through official UEFA and national federation announcements. Weather conditions at the venue and any last-minute fixture changes remain secondary but non-negligible factors. The compressed timeframe between now and 1 June means material squad news could emerge through official channels rather than speculative reporting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.