Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| Belgium O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Senegal O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Team to Advance | 61% |
| Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 50% |
| Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Belgium O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Senegal O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Belgium (-1.5) | 21% |
| Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Belgium O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Senegal (-1.5) | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Senegal O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Belgium (-2.5) | 8% |
| Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Senegal (-2.5) | 3% |
| Belgium (-3.5) | 3% |
| Senegal (-4.5) | 3% |
| Belgium (-5.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Senegal (-3.5) | 1% |
| Belgium (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Senegal (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 91% YES probability for Belgium vs. Senegal - More Markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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