Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Netherlands and Japan will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with the match scheduled for 4:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 4% implied probability for a specific scoreline reflects the mathematical reality that any single exact result represents a small fraction of all possible outcomes in a football match.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets typically see winning probabilities between 2% and 8% for individual outcomes, depending on expected goal-scoring patterns and team strength. The Netherlands and Japan have met twice competitively, drawing 0–0 in 2010 and 2018 World Cup qualifiers, though neither team's current squad composition directly parallels those fixtures. Recent tournament data indicates that matches between European and Asian sides in World Cup group stages produce moderate scoring, with the median outcome clustering around 1–1 or 2–1 results. The current 4% probability sits within normal ranges for a moderately likely scoreline in this fixture type.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through spring 2026, particularly regarding key injuries to Netherlands forwards or Japan's defensive personnel. Qualification performance in the intervening months will shape both teams' tactical approaches and confidence levels. Sportsbook moneyline odds and over-under totals, once published closer to the match date, will provide comparative data on expected scoring volume. The settlement window closes at match conclusion, leaving no opportunity for late-breaking information to alter the outcome.

Methodology

We track Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.