Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| Netherlands O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| Morocco O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Team to Advance | 60% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 53% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| Netherlands O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Morocco O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Netherlands (-1.5) | 19% |
| Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Netherlands O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| Morocco 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Morocco (-1.5) | 10% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Morocco O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Netherlands (-2.5) | 7% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Morocco (-2.5) | 3% |
| Netherlands (-3.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Morocco (-3.5) | 1% |
| Netherlands (-4.5) | 1% |
| Morocco (-4.5) | 0% |
| Netherlands (-5.5) | 0% |
| Morocco (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 90% probability to netherlands vs. morocco - more markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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