Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 78% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 66% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Gatito Fernández: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Gatito Fernández: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Gatito Fernández: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Gatito Fernández: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 41% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots on target | 40% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 22% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Álex Arce: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Julio César Enciso: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 9% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Julio César Enciso: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Julio César Enciso: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Álex Arce: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Miguel Almirón: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Álex Arce: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Miguel Almirón: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Álex Arce: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Miguel Almirón: 4+ shots | 3% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Álex Arce: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Gabriel Ávalos: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julio César Enciso: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Miguel Almirón: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 96% chance of paraguay vs. france - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Paraguay and France, scheduled for July 4 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Paraguay vs. France - Player Props on Best Prediction Markets
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