Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 72% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| Spain Corners: O/U 4.5 | 64% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Spain Corners: O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 47% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 41% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Portugal Corners: O/U 4.5 | 37% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| Spain Corners: O/U 6.5 | 32% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 28% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 21% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, portugal vs. spain - total corners stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Spain, scheduled for July 6 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Portugal vs. Spain - Total Corners across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Portugal vs. Spain - Total Corners on Best Prediction Markets
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