🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogLive odds →

Portugal vs. Croatia

Five-platform snapshot of "Portugal vs. Croatia" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Portugal 54% Draw 28% Croatia 20% Volume: $195K Liquidity: $753K Closes: 2 Jul 2026
Open live market →
Portugal vs. Croatia

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 54% 46% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 54% 46% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Portugal54%
Draw28%
Croatia20%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, portugal vs. croatia stands at 54% likelihood according to current market consensus. This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Thursday, July 2, 2026 between Portugal and Croatia.

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Portugal at 54% for "Portugal vs. Croatia".

Portugal 54% Other 46%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $195K.

Methodology

We track Portugal vs. Croatia across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

Trade Portugal vs. Croatia on Best Prediction Markets

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets.

See all markets →

Related Topics

Sports