Türkiye vs. Paraguay - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye meet Paraguay in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match on 19 June, with the question here not the result itself but whether the game will generate *additional markets* before settlement on 20 June at 03:00 UTC. The contract’s crowd-implied **24% YES** sits below the kind of event-level optimism shown by mainstream books on the match outcome, where Türkiye are generally priced as narrow favourites: ESPN’s live odds show Türkiye at **+125**, Paraguay at **+275**, and the draw at **+220**, while Pinnacle lists Türkiye around **2.04** and Oddschecker’s aggregate puts Paraguay around **23%** to win, implying a fairly balanced but slightly Türkiye-leaning contest.[2][5][6]

For comparable framing, “more markets” contracts on matchday football often trade below the simple win probability because they depend on whether sportsbooks and exchanges are still hanging fresh side, total, or player lines late in the build-up. That matters here because the pre-match market already shows disagreement on scoring: ESPN has **under 2.5** at **-165**, FOX Sports shows **under 2.5** at **-133**, and Football Whispers also leans under while still calling Türkiye the most likely winner.[1][2][4] In other words, the 24% YES price is materially lower than the match-level implied probability for a Türkiye win, which suggests traders are not pricing a high chance of a broader menu of derivative markets appearing.

The main catalysts are late team-news, any venue or scheduling changes, and whether bookmakers continue posting derivatives such as player shots, corners, or alternative totals as kickoff nears. ESPN’s market page is already listing both moneyline and total markets, so the key question is not whether the match can be priced, but whether enough additional distinct offerings remain open for the contract to resolve YES.[2] If books pull markets early or only keep a narrow set live, the contract is more likely to settle NO; if they keep expanding into props and alt lines, the probability rises.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. Paraguay - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.