United States vs. Paraguay - More Markets

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Market context

The United States men's national team will face Paraguay in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 12 June at 9:00 PM ET. This fixture represents a relatively favourable draw for the USMNT, as Paraguay qualified as the fifth-place finisher in CONMEBOL qualifying and has not reached a World Cup knockout stage since 2010. Historical precedent suggests the Americans should be competitive; they have won four of their last five meetings with Paraguay across all competitions, including a 3–0 victory in 2016 World Cup qualifying.

The 41% implied probability for additional markets being offered on this specific match sits notably lower than the consensus among major sportsbooks, where the US typically trades between −130 and −140 in moneyline odds—equivalent to roughly 56–58% implied probability. This divergence reflects either conservative positioning in the prediction market or uncertainty about which supplementary betting options (goal-scorer props, corner totals, card markets) will actually be settled. The schedule dependency is critical: regulatory approval and sportsbook availability for World Cup markets often lag behind fixture announcements, and the settlement window's 2026-06-13 01:00:00 UTC deadline allows minimal post-match buffer for dispute resolution.

Traders should monitor FIFA's official market regulations and any announcements from major US-regulated sportsbooks regarding their 2026 World Cup offerings. Squad news closer to June 2026—particularly US injuries or Paraguay's form in preceding qualifiers—will influence whether the current probability floor holds or whether confidence in expanded market availability shifts the contract upward.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.